Legislature(2013 - 2014)SENATE FINANCE 532

01/23/2013 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE


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09:01:42 AM Start
09:02:59 AM Fy14 Budget Overview: Legislative Finance Division
09:38:25 AM Federal Budget Overview: Federal Funds Information for States
10:33:15 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ David Teal - Legislative Finance Division - TELECONFERENCED
FY14 Budget Overview
Federal Budget Overview: Federal Funds
Information for States
- Trinity Tomsic, Deputy Executive Director at
Federal Funds Information for States
<Agenda Item Rescheduled from 1/22/13>
                 SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                                                                       
                     January 23, 2013                                                                                           
                         9:01 a.m.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:01:42 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CALL TO ORDER                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly called the Senate Finance Committee meeting                                                                      
to order at 9:01 a.m.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Pete Kelly, Co-Chair                                                                                                    
Senator Kevin Meyer, Co-Chair                                                                                                   
Senator Anna Fairclough, Vice-Chair                                                                                             
Senator Click Bishop                                                                                                            
Senator Mike Dunleavy                                                                                                           
Senator Lyman Hoffman                                                                                                           
Senator Donny Olson                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
None                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
ALSO PRESENT                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
David Teal, Director, Legislative Finance Division; Trinity                                                                     
Tomsic, Deputy Executive Director at Federal Funds                                                                              
Information for States                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SUMMARY                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
FY14 BUDGET OVERVIEW: LEGISLATIVE FINANCE DIVISION                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
FEDERAL BUDGET OVERVIEW: FEDERAL FUNDS INFORMATION FOR                                                                          
STATES                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
^FY14 BUDGET OVERVIEW: LEGISLATIVE FINANCE DIVISION                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:02:59 AM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:03:18 AM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:04:03 AM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:04:49 AM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
DAVID   TEAL,   DIRECTOR,  LEGISLATIVE   FINANCE   DIVISION,                                                                    
explained  how   the  Legislative  Finance   Division  (LFD)                                                                    
functioned, and  referred to a previous  presentation by the                                                                    
Office  of Management  and Budget  (OMB). He  remarked that,                                                                    
currently,  LFD agreed  with the  technical analysis  of the                                                                    
budget as presented  by OMB. Although, he  stressed that LFD                                                                    
did  not  support  or  oppose   the  governor's  budget.  He                                                                    
announced  that  the  LFD   fiscal  summary  was  especially                                                                    
important for the current year,  because there was currently                                                                    
no  fiscal surplus.  He  remarked that  in  the prior  eight                                                                    
years, revenue  had exceeded forecasts, therefore  there was                                                                    
a surplus.  The legislature  had expected  a surplus  at the                                                                    
end  of  the  previous  session,  but  oil  production  fell                                                                    
drastically  after April  2012.  He stressed  that high  oil                                                                    
prices also contributed  to the deficit. He  felt that there                                                                    
would  need to  be a  withdrawal  from savings  in order  to                                                                    
resolve the deficit.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:09:20 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  discussed a PowerPoint presentation,  "FY14 Fiscal                                                                    
Overview, Senate Finance Committee,  January 23, 2013" (copy                                                                    
on file).  He looked  at slides  1 and  2, "State  of Alaska                                                                    
Fiscal Summary-FY13 and FY14 (Part  1)." The slide displayed                                                                    
the $410  million number on line  51 for FY13. He  urged the                                                                    
committee not to "trust" that  number, because it included a                                                                    
$250  million  to the  Statutory  Budget  Reserve (SBR).  He                                                                    
explained that the  money was deposited in  the SBR, because                                                                    
there   was  an   expected  surplus;   also,   it  was   the                                                                    
legislature's desire to actively  save money, rather than to                                                                    
save "leftover" money. Money was  deposited in the SBR early                                                                    
in the 2012 legislative session.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  pointed out the  $10 million deficit in  FY13. The                                                                    
reason for the deficit was  the change in projections, which                                                                    
was  inevitable because  both oil  production and  oil price                                                                    
were volatile. Small changes in  production and price have a                                                                    
large impact on  the revenue stream, so it  was difficult to                                                                    
make accurate  projections. He pointed out  the $900 million                                                                    
swing  downward from  a  surplus of  $500  million in  April                                                                    
2012.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman queried the FY13  end balance of the SBR and                                                                    
Constitutional Budget  Reserve (CBR). Mr. Teal  replied that                                                                    
there was a  little over $5 billion in the  SBR and slightly                                                                    
over $11  billion in  the CBR,  with a total  of $16  or $17                                                                    
billion depending on the daily change of the stock market.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  explained that the  $410 million  deficit included                                                                    
the $250  SBR savings,  so with  that adjustment,  one could                                                                    
consider that deficit at $160  million-plus or minus $100 to                                                                    
$200 million.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:14:04 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop  remarked that  the deficit  could disappear,                                                                    
if the  oil production was  back up to over  602,000 barrels                                                                    
per day.  Mr. Teal  agreed, and  furthered that  the deficit                                                                    
was $160  million, plus  or minus  a couple  hundred million                                                                    
dollars.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal looked at slide  1, "State of Alaska Fiscal Summary                                                                    
-  FY 13  and FY  14 (Part  1)." The  Department of  Revenue                                                                    
(DOR) projected that  FY 14 oil production  would decline by                                                                    
approximately  2.7  percent,  and  the oil  price  would  be                                                                    
higher by about  one dollar. He looked at line  1, and noted                                                                    
that  the revenue  was  down  from the  year  prior by  $510                                                                    
million.  There would  be a  deficit, if  spending in  FY 14                                                                    
were  to  match spending  in  FY  15  of $510  million  plus                                                                    
whatever deficit resulted from the  FY 13 budget. He pointed                                                                    
out that  the total  spending on line  37 was  $1.17 billion                                                                    
lower  than in  FY 13.  He shared  that the  average capital                                                                    
budget  for  the  ten  years prior  was  $875  million.  The                                                                    
governor's current  capital budget  request of  $870 million                                                                    
lined  up  with that  average,  but  was approximately  $100                                                                    
million  less than  the  FY 13  governor's  request; so  the                                                                    
current  capital budget  was the  second highest  governor's                                                                    
request of the last ten years.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:19:10 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  shared slide 3, "FY  05 to FY 14  Capital Budget."                                                                    
The table reflected the capital budget  from FY 05 to FY 14.                                                                    
He pointed out that the  final budget was always much higher                                                                    
than  the   governor's  request,  because   the  legislature                                                                    
typically  added  a  significant  amount  of  money  to  the                                                                    
governor's    request.    The   governor's    request    was                                                                    
approximately 50  percent of the  final budget.  The current                                                                    
capital  budget  would  double to  $1.8  billion,  with  the                                                                    
governor's request at 49 percent  of the total, resulting in                                                                    
a  $650 million  deficit. He  stressed that  the legislature                                                                    
was  only  able to  add  $263  million in  spending,  before                                                                    
utilizing  the  savings  accounts.   He  stressed  that  his                                                                    
presentation  was  based  on projections,  with  a  sizeable                                                                    
margin of error;  so it was difficult  to accurately project                                                                    
the budget and spending for FY  14, because it was 18 months                                                                    
away.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Teal  looked at  slide  2,  and  pointed out  the  $263                                                                    
million  that the  governor left  over  for the  legislature                                                                    
additions,  spending, or  saving. The  $508 million  request                                                                    
included a  $120 million savings withdrawal  from the Alaska                                                                    
Housing  Capital Corporation.  If there  was a  $508 million                                                                    
surplus,  recognizing the  $120  million  from savings,  the                                                                    
true surplus  would be $388  million. The  governor's budget                                                                    
had  unintentionally  omitted  $125 million  to  the  Alaska                                                                    
Industrial Development  and Export Authority  (AIDEA) Energy                                                                    
Fund. So,  if you  subtract the $125  million from  the $388                                                                    
million,  there  was  actually $263  million  available  for                                                                    
capital  spending. He  stated that  if there  were a  $1.120                                                                    
billion, the fiscal summary would  reflect a $1.508 billion.                                                                    
He  stressed  that the  savings  withdrawals  should not  be                                                                    
combined with the amount of money left over.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:24:37 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Teal  stated  that  if   there  was  no  money  in  the                                                                    
governor's request,  there would be a  $263 million surplus;                                                                    
adding $263  million to the  capital budget would  bring the                                                                    
available funds  back to zero;  and spending more  than $263                                                                    
million would  result in a  deficit. He reiterated  that the                                                                    
projection  should  be considered  plus  or  minus a  couple                                                                    
hundred  million  dollars;  and   the  surplus  and  deficit                                                                    
calculation   also  included   the  operating   budget.  The                                                                    
governor's operating and  supplemental budget numbers should                                                                    
remain at  requested, if the  legislature intended  to spend                                                                    
the  $263  million on  capital  items.  He shared  that  the                                                                    
governor's request was the  smallest increase proposed since                                                                    
the  "bump" in  revenue  began  in FY  05,  at  less than  1                                                                    
percent. The average increase for  the eight years prior was                                                                    
6.5 percent.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal looked at slide  4, "Figure 1. Unrestricted General                                                                    
Fund  Revenue Budget  History." If  that 1  percent or  less                                                                    
growth, there was  a chance that a deficit  could be avoided                                                                    
for  the  following three  or  four  years; but  after  four                                                                    
years,  with a  decline  in revenue,  the  1 percent  growth                                                                    
would  result  in a  deficit.  He  remarked that  the  graph                                                                    
displayed  the  assumed 1  percent  growth  in State  agency                                                                    
operations;  flat state-wide  operations, retirement  costs,                                                                    
etc.; the  capital budget  was flat  at $875  million, which                                                                    
was roughly the  governor's request and the  average for the                                                                    
10 years prior.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal looked at slide  4, "Figure 1. Unrestricted General                                                                    
Fund  Revenue/ Budget  History ($  millions, except  for oil                                                                    
prices)."   He  noted   that   the   deficits  would   begin                                                                    
immediately, and  exceed $4  billion by  2022. Based  on the                                                                    
revenue projections  and state spending, the  reserves would                                                                    
disappear by  2025. He pointed  out that the  capital budget                                                                    
forecast, which  was highlighted in yellow,  remained fairly                                                                    
flat.  The capital  budget  declined  from approximately  $7                                                                    
billion  a year  to  approximately $6  billion, because  the                                                                    
decline  in  production  was  offset  by  forecasted  higher                                                                    
prices. He shared that LFD  focused on the expenditure side,                                                                    
because  the  expenditures  were  within  the  legislature's                                                                    
direct   and  immediate   control.  He   guessed  that   the                                                                    
legislature would  not be able  to spend the  entire surplus                                                                    
of  $263 million  on capital  projects, unless  savings were                                                                    
utilized.  It  would  be difficult  to  hold  the  operating                                                                    
budget to the 1 percent, or $52 million increase.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:28:39 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Fairclough  noticed that  her  back  up did  not                                                                    
match the  slide on the  screen.   Mr. Teal replied  that he                                                                    
had  manually changed  the growth  rate from  the governor's                                                                    
growth  rate. He  furthered that  changes in  the governor's                                                                    
budget were  not included  in the  members' packets,  but he                                                                    
was merely displaying the rate for information.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  stressed that his  message was not intended  to be                                                                    
"doom  and gloom."  He  remarked that  the  Alaska was  very                                                                    
wealthy  compared  to  other  states.  The  state's  average                                                                    
capital  budget was  large, compared  to  past spending.  He                                                                    
displayed a slide  that was not included in  the file, which                                                                    
showed  that budgets  were flat  for twenty  years when  the                                                                    
State had no money. The  6.5 percent growth rate occurred at                                                                    
the moment  that revenue  climbed. He  stressed that  it was                                                                    
the job  of the legislature  to determine how to  respond to                                                                    
the revenue  decline. He stressed  that the growth  over the                                                                    
past 6 years was unsustainable.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  stated that much  of his information  was included                                                                    
in the LFD Fiscal Summary.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:34:38 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman  looked at  page 4,  and wondered  why there                                                                    
was no acknowledgement of the  rising price of barrel of oil                                                                    
He stressed  that those numbers  were projected  to continue                                                                    
to rise, so he wondered where  the figures in the chart were                                                                    
derived. Mr.  Teal replied that  the chart was based  on the                                                                    
numbers provided by DOR.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman  clarified that it  was anticipated  that by                                                                    
2022, the  price of barrel  of oil  would sell at  $124. Mr.                                                                    
Teal agreed.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:35:29 AM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:37:34 AM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
^FEDERAL  BUDGET  OVERVIEW:  FEDERAL FUNDS  INFORMATION  FOR                                                                  
STATES                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:38:25 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
TRINITY TOMSIC,  DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AT  FEDERAL FUNDS                                                                    
INFORMATION  FOR  STATES  (FFIS),  introduced  herself.  She                                                                    
explained that  FFIS was a small  national organization that                                                                    
worked with  the legislative and  executive branches  in all                                                                    
of  the states,  to  monitor the  fiscal  impact of  federal                                                                    
policy on states and state budgets.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic  displayed the PowerPoint  Presentation, "Federal                                                                    
Budget  and  Alaska;   Alaska  Legislature:  Senate  Finance                                                                    
Committee Briefing" (copy on file).  She explained that FFIS                                                                    
focused   on  the   federal  grants   to  state   and  local                                                                    
governments, and  examined the specific events  in 2013. The                                                                    
most important  issue facing states  was the  federal budget                                                                    
Sequester.  The Sequester  was the  "across the  board" cuts                                                                    
that were scheduled to go  into effect one month later. .She                                                                    
looked  at slide  2, "Where  the money  goes: pieces  of the                                                                    
federal   budget  pie."   The   pie   graph  displayed   the                                                                    
composition of federal outlays in FY 11:                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Defense: $700 billion; 20 percent                                                                                          
     Domestic Discretionary: $648 billion; 18 percent                                                                           
     Social Security: $725 billion; 20 percent                                                                                  
     Medicare: $480 billion; 13 percent                                                                                         
     Medicaid: $275 billion; 8 percent                                                                                          
     Other Mandatory: $546 billion; 15 percent                                                                                  
     Net Interest: $230 billion; 6 percent                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic  explained that total  federal outlays  were $3.6                                                                    
trillion; and  half of the  $3.6 trillion went  to mandatory                                                                    
programs  like  social  security,  Medicare,  Medicaid,  net                                                                    
interest,  nutrition  programs,  welfare  programs,  federal                                                                    
retirement benefits,  etc. Mandatory programs  were governed                                                                    
outside of the annual appropriation  process; so the cost of                                                                    
the mandatory  programs was based on  caseloads and programs                                                                    
costs. The only  way that congress changes  the growth rates                                                                    
and   programs  was   through  the   authorization  process.                                                                    
Discretionary  was less  than half  of the  budget, and  was                                                                    
subject  to the  appropriation  process. Of  the total  $3.6                                                                    
trillion  outlays, the  federal budget  deficit in  2011 was                                                                    
$1.5 trillion. She  pointed out that there would  still be a                                                                    
deficit;  if  defense  and domestic  discretionary  spending                                                                    
were eliminated.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:42:33 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic displayed  slide  3,  "Payments for  individuals                                                                    
have  come  to dominate  federal  grants."  She stated  that                                                                    
approximately  $600   billion  of  the  $3.6   trillion  was                                                                    
distributed to  state and local  governments in the  form of                                                                    
federal grants. Those  federal grants were not  the only way                                                                    
that the  states benefited  from federal  spending: defense,                                                                    
social  security,   and  Medicare  were  forms   of  federal                                                                    
spending  outside of  federal grants.  The  $600 billion  in                                                                    
federal grant  money to states represented  approximately 18                                                                    
percent of the federal budget.  The growth of the grants was                                                                    
mostly  based on  payments that  were going  to individuals,                                                                    
specifically through  the Medicaid program. The  other types                                                                    
of  grants   that  were  distributed  to   state  and  local                                                                    
governments     included     capital    expenditure     like                                                                    
transportation  programs.   The  remainder  was   the  other                                                                    
discretionary programs like  education, non-Medicaid related                                                                    
health programs,  etc. She noted that  states were receiving                                                                    
more  Medicaid  money, but  the  other  program funding  was                                                                    
decreasing.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  discussed slide  4,  "What  programs areas  are                                                                    
supported  by  state/local  grants?" The  graph  showed  the                                                                    
federal outlays to state and local governments, FY11.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     Health: $293 billion; 48 percent                                                                                           
     Income Security: $114; 19 percent                                                                                          
     Justice: $5 billion; 1 percent                                                                                             
     Energy, Natural Resources, Environment: $13 billion; 2                                                                     
     percent                                                                                                                    
     Agriculture: $1 billion; zero percent                                                                                      
     Community and Regional Development: $20 billion; 3                                                                         
     percent                                                                                                                    
     Transportation: $61 billion; 10 percent                                                                                    
     Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services:                                                                      
     $89 billion; 15 percent                                                                                                    
     Other: $11 billion; 2 percent                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  discussed slide  5,  "Federal  grants going  to                                                                    
Alaska: share  of funding by  function." She  explained that                                                                    
FFIS  had a  sophisticated grant  database, which  looked at                                                                    
all of the money that was  distributed to Alaska, and how it                                                                    
was  spent. She  stressed  that  transportation programs  in                                                                    
Alaska far exceeded the national average.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:46:42 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic looked  at  slide 6,  "Federal  grants going  to                                                                    
Alaska:  per capita,  2011." She  stated  that Medicaid  was                                                                    
ranked  10  with  $1,041 per  capita;  other  mandatory  was                                                                    
ranked 5  with $659 per  capita; discretionary was  ranked 1                                                                    
with  $1,812 per  capita;  with  a total  ranked  at 3  with                                                                    
$3,512 per capita.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  displayed  slide   7,  "What  influences  grant                                                                    
allocations?"                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     Medicaid redistributes income from:                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     -richer to poorer states                                                                                                   
     -smaller to larger programs                                                                                                
     -cheaper to more expensive programs                                                                                        
     -Alaska receives $1,041 per capita in federal Medicaid                                                                     
     funding and ranks number 10; FMAP = 50.00 percent                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     Many programs allocate funds based on need                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     -Alaska is a relatively wealthy state (high per capita                                                                     
     income and low poverty rate)                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Alaska benefits from grant programs with small-state                                                                       
     minimums                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:50:02 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  displayed  slide   8,  "What  influences  grant                                                                    
allocations?"                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     Demographics                                                                                                               
     -26 percent of Alaska's population is under 18 (above                                                                      
     average) and 8 percent is 65 or older (below average)                                                                      
     -Alaska has experienced a slight increase in its share                                                                     
     of total population since 2000                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     Federal facilities/land                                                                                                    
     -Large federal presence in Alaska                                                                                          
     -Alaska benefits from programs with formulas based on                                                                      
     receipts from federal land                                                                                                 
          -BLM's Payments in Lieu of Taxes, Mineral Leasing                                                                     
          Payments, Impact Aid                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic looked  at slide  9, "What's  the outlook  in FY                                                                    
2013 and beyond?"                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Budget Control Act (BCA) sequester                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     FY 2013 appropriations                                                                                                     
     -Continuing Resolution (CR) expires 3/27/13                                                                                
     -State/local programs disproportionately targeted for                                                                      
     spending cuts since 2010                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     Comprehensive deficit reduction                                                                                            
     -Medicaid reform; cost-shift to states?                                                                                    
     -Further cuts in discretionary spending                                                                                    
     -Trade-off: more certainty, less funding                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic explained  the federal  government  had not  yet                                                                    
passed  a  budget for  FY  13.  The federal  government  was                                                                    
currently acting in a  continuing resolution, which required                                                                    
the federal government  to continue to fund  the programs at                                                                    
previous year levels through March  27, 2013. At some point,                                                                    
congress  needed to  develop a  budget for  the year.  Since                                                                    
2010, there may have been  cuts to the overall discretionary                                                                    
budget. The programs benefiting  state and local governments                                                                    
were disproportionately  targeted, and received  much larger                                                                    
cuts than  the budget as  a whole. The funding  levels would                                                                    
be based on the appropriation  bill, in addition to the cuts                                                                    
that  would  occur  through  the  sequester  process.  Until                                                                    
January 1,  2013, there were congress  conversations related                                                                    
to   comprehensive  deficit   reduction.  Currently,   those                                                                    
conversations  were not  occurring, and  the budget  deficit                                                                    
had not changed. From the  state's perspective, Medicaid was                                                                    
a  mandatory entitlement  program.  There would  be cuts  to                                                                    
Medicaid  when congress  addresses the  deficit. There  were                                                                    
many  proposals to  cut the  Medicaid program;  but most  of                                                                    
those proposals  did not include  ideas to make  the program                                                                    
more effective,  reduce the cost of  federal governments and                                                                    
states.  The   Medicaid  cutting  proposals   were  directed                                                                    
towards reducing the federal share  and increasing the state                                                                    
share.  There   would  be  further  cuts   in  discretionary                                                                    
spending, when comprehensive deficit reductions occur.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:54:51 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic  discussed slide 10, "Discretionary  spending has                                                                    
been  on the  decline."  The chart  showed  how, over  time,                                                                    
states  have  been  slowly  receiving   cuts.  The  red  bar                                                                    
represented  discretionary programs;  which had  fallen from                                                                    
$116 billion in FY 10 to $104 billion in FY 04.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  displayed  slide  11,   "The  BCA  and  Looming                                                                    
Sequester."                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Sequester scheduled to occur on March 1, 2013                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     $984 billion in cuts required over FYs 2013-2021                                                                           
     (roughly $109 billion per year, half from defense and                                                                      
     half from nondefense)                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
          -"Fix" reduced FY 2013 cuts from $109 billion to                                                                      
          $85 billion a year                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
     Many mandatory and a few discretionary programs are                                                                        
     exempt (special rule for special/trust funds)                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     ATB in FY 2013, different process for FY 2014 and                                                                          
     beyond                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:59:07 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic shared slide 12, "FAQs on the BCA Sequester."                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     1) What is the ATB percentage cut?                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
          -FFIS estimates -5.9 percent for nondefense                                                                           
          discretionary (was -8.2 percent) and -5.7 percent                                                                     
          for nondefense mandatory (was -7.6 percent)                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
          -Exact percentage won't be known until March 2013                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     2) How will individual programs be affected?                                                                               
          -ATB cut applied to FY 2013 funding in place on                                                                       
          3/1/13 (CR?)                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
          -Cuts must be applied to each program, project,                                                                       
          and activity                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
          -OMB has authority to apply special rules,                                                                            
          exemptions                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     3) What is the timing of the cuts?                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
          -Agencies have some discretion                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
          -Reflected in grant awards issued after March 1,                                                                      
          2013                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic related  that the U.S. president  had the ability                                                                    
to  exempt   military  personnel.  Civilian   personnel  and                                                                    
procurement  would absorb  those  across  the board  defense                                                                    
cuts.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  discussed slide  13,  "While  most state  grant                                                                    
programs  are  subject to  sequester."  She  stated that  24                                                                    
percent  of the  state  programs were  exempt,  and 76  were                                                                    
covered.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic  looked at slide  14, "Most Alaska  grant funding                                                                    
is exempt." She  related that in 2013,  Alaska would receive                                                                    
about $2.7 billion. Of that  $2.7 billion, only $656 million                                                                    
would be subject to Sequester.  Medicaid was the reason that                                                                    
most  of  the  grant  funding was  exempt.  Alaska  received                                                                    
approximately  $900 million  in Medicaid  grant funding  for                                                                    
Medicaid.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop asked  for Ms. Tomsic to  repeat her previous                                                                    
statement. Ms.  Tomsic estimated  that Alaska  would receive                                                                    
$2.7 billion  in 2013;  of that  $2.7 billion,  $656 million                                                                    
was subject to sequester.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  displayed  slide 15,  "Some  program  areas  in                                                                    
Alaska are more affected than others."                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     Agriculture: 100 percent                                                                                                   
     Employment and Training: 100 percent                                                                                       
     Community Development: 100 percent                                                                                         
     Justice: 100 percent                                                                                                       
     Energy, Env., Natural Resources: 100 percent                                                                               
     General Gov't: 100 percent                                                                                                 
     Education: 87 percent                                                                                                      
     Income Security and Social Services: 26 percent                                                                            
     Health: 6 percent                                                                                                          
     Transportation: 3 percent                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:06:40 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  discussed  slide 16,  "Among  the  ten  largest                                                                    
grants  in  Alaska, seven  are  totally  exempt." The  seven                                                                    
grants that  were exempt in  Alaska were Medicaid  - Vendor,                                                                    
$837  million; Airport  Improvement  Program, $220  million;                                                                    
Food   Stamp  Benefits,   $172  million;   FHWA  -   Surface                                                                    
Transportation,  Medicaid  Admin.,  $71  million;  Temporary                                                                    
Assistance to Needy Families, $45  million; and Pell Grants,                                                                    
$43 million.  The three grants  that are at  least partially                                                                    
covered   were  the   National  Highway   Performance,  $272                                                                    
million; Impact Aid - Basic  Support Payments, $143 million;                                                                    
Consolidated Health Centers, $40 million.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic shared side 17,  "The largest nonexempt grants in                                                                    
Alaska mostly benefit local  governments." She stressed that                                                                    
the  local  governments may  not  feel  the effects  of  the                                                                    
federal cuts,  because the State  may decide to make  up the                                                                    
difference.  The  largest  nonexempt grans  in  Alaska  that                                                                    
mostly  benefit local  governments were  Impact Aid  - Basic                                                                    
Support   Payments,   $143  million;   Consolidated   Health                                                                    
Centers,  $40 million;  Title 1  - Local  Education Agencies                                                                    
(LEAs), $37  million; Special  Education Basic  State Grant,                                                                    
$37  million; Unemployment  Insurance  -  State Admin.,  $27                                                                    
million; BLM  Payments in  Lieu of  Taxes, $27  million; WIC                                                                    
Supplemental Feeding Program,  $25 million; Mineral Leasing,                                                                    
$23  million;  Fish and  Wildlife  -  Fish Restoration,  $28                                                                    
million;  Fish  and  Wildlife -  Wildlife  Restoration,  $15                                                                    
million.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:10:16 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic displayed slide 18,  "Potential impact of amended                                                                    
sequester  in Alaska."  Alaska's  covered programs  received                                                                    
$637 million in  FY 12; if there were no  sequester in 2013,                                                                    
Alaska would  receive $656 million;  but with  the sequester                                                                    
the number had  fallen to $619 million.  Therefore there was                                                                    
an    $18    million.   Congress    recently    reauthorized                                                                    
transportation  structure by  creating  new structures.  She                                                                    
reiterated that Medicaid would be  the program that congress                                                                    
would focus on after the sequester.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic  discussed  slide  19,  "We're  captive  on  the                                                                    
carousel."                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     One "crisis" averted, more in store:                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     -March 1 sequester                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     -Debt ceiling has been reached and will need to be                                                                         
     raised                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     -FY 2013 appropriations                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
          -CR expires March 27                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     Total nondefense discretionary spending is $610                                                                            
     billion, the federal deficit is $1.1 trillion                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:15:25 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Tomsic looked at slide 20, "So what's the bottom line?"                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     -The yawning gap between federal revenues and spending                                                                     
     persists.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     -Tax expenditures and Medicare/Medicaid are squeezing                                                                      
     out other spending.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     -The state-federal partnership is now defined by                                                                           
     Medicaid.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     -Non-Medicaid grants have been on the descent for                                                                          
     years, and that's unlikely to change.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Ms.  Tomsic discussed  the table,  "Major Discretionary  and                                                                    
Mandatory  Program Funding."  She  remarked  that the  table                                                                    
displayed national  amounts for  2011, 2012, and  what would                                                                    
be  funded  in  2013  under  the  sequester.  The  Education                                                                    
Department and  Health & Human Services  Department had been                                                                    
roughly level funded over the  recent years. Education would                                                                    
move  from  $37  billion  to $35  billion  under  sequester.                                                                    
Health & Human  Services would move from $25  billion to $24                                                                    
billion.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly stated that one  million seconds ago would be                                                                    
the "Tuesday before last"; one  billion seconds ago would be                                                                    
around  1981  or 1982;  and  one  trillion seconds  ago  was                                                                    
31,000 BC.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:20:26 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Meyer  noted that Alaska's Medicare  population was                                                                    
the second largest growing population  in the United States.                                                                    
He wondered  what the future  looked like for  Medicare, and                                                                    
wondered  how  "Obamacare"  would  impact  the  budget.  Ms.                                                                    
Tomsic replied  that Medicare was  not an area that  she was                                                                    
familiar  with. She  relayed overall  observations, but  was                                                                    
limited on details. She stated  that Medicare was subject to                                                                    
sequester, but  was only 2  percent. She looked  at provider                                                                    
payments, and  explained that every year,  provider payments                                                                    
were going to be cut.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Meyer  wondered how the  Affordable Care  Act would                                                                    
impact Medicare  and Medicaid. Ms.  Tomsic replied  that the                                                                    
only  impact   would  occur  when  states   decide  to  take                                                                    
advantage of the program.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  surmised that  Alaska received a  total of                                                                    
$2.7  billion  in federal  funding.  Ms.  Tomsic agreed  and                                                                    
furthered that  FFIS only  tracked 95  percent of  the state                                                                    
and  local  government funding,  so  the  actual number  was                                                                    
slightly higher.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy  wondered if  the  mandates  were tied  to                                                                    
Alaska  receiving the  money. Ms.  Tomsic  replied that  the                                                                    
mandates were tied to the funding.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy  surmised  that  if Alaska  chose  not  to                                                                    
receive  the funding,  it would  not be  required to  follow                                                                    
through with  the mandates.   Ms.  Tomsic agreed.  She added                                                                    
that  those  mandates   were  considered  "conditions"  upon                                                                    
receiving federal funding.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:25:59 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Bishop would  like to  have a  discussion regarding                                                                    
tribal  funding.  Ms.  Tomsic   replied  that  she  was  not                                                                    
familiar with tribal funding, because  FFIS did not track it                                                                    
closely. Ms. Tomsic agreed to provide further information.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman  noted that  the defense  budget represented                                                                    
27 percent of the total  federal budget, at $750 billion. He                                                                    
felt  that  the presentation  did  not  reflect how  defense                                                                    
spending  and cuts  affected Alaska.  Ms.  Tomsic agreed  to                                                                    
provide further information.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman wondered what the  defense budget would look                                                                    
like in 2021,  after the mandatory cuts.  Ms. Tomsic replied                                                                    
that  the budget  was outlined  with  total spending  limits                                                                    
that were  divided between  different defense  accounts. She                                                                    
furthered   that   funding   was   expected   to   grow   by                                                                    
approximately 2 percent per year.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:31:04 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator   Hoffman  wondered   if  the   defense  cuts   were                                                                    
predetermined,  or if  Congress  would  determine where  the                                                                    
cuts were  allocated by  state. Ms.  Tomsic replied  that in                                                                    
2013  the cuts  were across  the board.  Going forward,  the                                                                    
reductions  would be  in the  overall  caps. Congress  would                                                                    
then determine what  programs would be impacted,  but it was                                                                    
still split between defense and non-defense programs.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman stressed that he  would like to focus on the                                                                    
defense budget,  because it was  such a significant  part of                                                                    
Alaska. Co-Chair Kelly agreed.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly discussed housekeeping.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
10:33:15 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The meeting was adjourned at 10:33 a.m.                                                                                         

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
Alaska SFC (TT 0113).pdf SFIN 1/23/2013 9:00:00 AM
Federal Overview
LFD FY14 Fiscal Overview.pdf SFIN 1/23/2013 9:00:00 AM
SB19-LFD FY14 Overview
FY 2013 CR Updated March Sequester.pdf SFIN 1/23/2013 9:00:00 AM
Federal Budget Overview